Heating oil prices have experienced considerable movement during 2026, leaving many households wondering whether to order now or wait to see what happens next.
Unfortunately, there is no way to predict short-term price movements with certainty. Heating oil prices are influenced by international events, wholesale kerosene costs, exchange rates, refinery output and local supply conditions. A change in any of these factors can affect the price offered to customers in the North West.
However, understanding what is driving the market—and considering your current tank level—can help you make a more informed decision.
Heating oil prices have been unusually volatile
The scale of recent price movements demonstrates how quickly the heating-oil market can change.
According to figures published by the Competition and Markets Authority, the average UK heating-oil price increased from approximately 64 pence per litre in February 2026 to 104 pence per litre in March. Prices subsequently peaked at an average of 123 pence per litre during April before declining again in May.
For a typical 500-litre order, the increase between February and March added approximately £200 to the average household bill.
While prices later moved away from their spring peak, continued international uncertainty means further short-term movement remains possible.
What is affecting heating oil prices now?
Domestic heating oil is generally a form of kerosene, and its wholesale cost is connected to the wider international oil and refined-products markets.
Several factors are currently influencing prices.
Global oil supplies
Events affecting major oil-producing regions and important shipping routes can quickly change expectations about future supply.
Recent attention has focused particularly on the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant proportion of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas normally travels. Concerns about the security and reliability of these supply routes can add a risk premium to international oil prices.
Refinery output
The price of crude oil is only part of the picture. Crude must be refined into usable products, including kerosene.
The International Energy Agency reported that although crude supplies improved during June, the recovery in refined-product supplies was considerably slower. This means crude prices and domestic heating-oil prices may not always move in exactly the same direction or at the same speed.
Exchange rates
Oil and refined products are commonly traded internationally in US dollars. Changes in the value of sterling against the dollar can therefore influence the price UK suppliers pay, even when the underlying commodity price remains relatively stable.
Location and delivery requirements
Your individual heating-oil quote will also be affected by practical considerations closer to home, including:
- Your postcode
- The quantity required
- Delivery-route availability
- Distance from the supplying depot
- Access to the property
- Whether a standard or urgent delivery is required
This is why a national average or an online article cannot provide an exact price for a particular household.
Is now a good time to order heating oil?
The answer depends as much on your circumstances as it does on the market.
If your tank is running low, waiting for a possible price reduction could create a greater risk of running out. An urgent delivery may offer less flexibility than an order arranged while you still have a reasonable reserve.
If you have sufficient oil remaining, you have more time to monitor the market, obtain a current quote and decide whether to order a full delivery or a smaller top-up.
Before making that decision, consider:
- How much heating oil remains in your tank?
- How quickly does your household normally use it?
- Do you have enough to cover an unexpected period of colder weather?
- Would a partial delivery provide useful protection against further price movement?
- Could waiting leave you needing an urgent delivery?
Rather than attempting to identify the lowest possible point in a volatile market, many households may prefer to order based on their actual usage, available budget and the need to maintain a sensible reserve.
Could ordering before winter provide more flexibility?
Heating-oil demand normally increases as temperatures fall and more households begin using their heating regularly.
Ordering outside the busiest periods does not guarantee a lower price, but it may provide greater flexibility over delivery dates and reduce the risk of reaching a critically low tank level during colder weather.
If you expect to need heating oil during autumn or winter, checking your current level and requesting a quote in advance allows you to make the decision without the pressure of an empty tank.
Ways to manage your heating-oil costs
Although customers cannot control wholesale prices, there are practical steps that can make household fuel costs easier to manage.
Check your tank regularly
Knowing your approximate tank level allows you to plan an order before the situation becomes urgent. A fuel monitor can make this easier by helping you track usage and identify when your oil is running low.
Request a price based on your actual requirements
Prices can vary by postcode and order quantity. A current quotation based on the number of litres you need will be more useful than relying on a historic UK average.
Consider a partial top-up
If you are concerned about market uncertainty or do not need a complete refill, a smaller order may provide additional security while limiting the immediate household cost. Minimum delivery quantities will apply.
Ask about payment options
A suitable payment plan may help spread the cost and make it easier to prepare for future deliveries rather than waiting until the tank is nearly empty.
Avoid leaving an order until the last moment
Planning ahead normally provides more delivery flexibility and reduces the risk of needing urgent assistance after running out.
Heating oil delivery across the North West
Compass Fuels supplies competitively priced domestic heating oil to households across Lancashire, South Cumbria and the Lake District, the Fylde Coast, Merseyside, Sefton, Greater Manchester and North Cheshire.
Our team combines local knowledge with responsive customer service, flexible payment options and a dedicated fleet that includes vehicles capable of reaching properties where access may be more difficult.
Because heating-oil prices can change regularly, the most accurate way to understand what you would pay is to request a quote based on your postcode and the quantity required.
Get today’s heating oil price
If you are considering an order, speak to Compass Fuels for a current quotation and available delivery options.
Either complete our online quotation form, email us or call 01772 619 461 to speak to one of the Compass team.
Market information checked on 30 July 2026. Heating-oil and kerosene prices can rise or fall without notice. This article provides general market information and does not guarantee future price movements or delivery availability.



